The U.S. Capitol building is seen from Freedom Plaza on Sept. 7, 2025, in Washington, D.C. (Yasin Ozturk/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Every shutdown is different. It’s a near political certainty that the sides seize up periodically, compelling a government shutdown. Such was the case with the last one. President Donald Trump demanded money for his border wall. The same with the 16-day shutdown over repealing Obamacare in 2013. Or even with a couple of partial but significant shutdowns in late 1995, stretching into 1996, over cuts to health care and environmental spending.
Here’s what we know about past shutdowns:
Federal employees, not deemed essential, don’t go to work. The military and those in national security remain on the job. However, pay for everyone is in abeyance until the shutdown is settled. Anything not essential stops. National parks and museums usually close. However, the Postal Service continues to operate. Passport processing usually stops. Air traffic controllers continue to work.
But they aren’t paid until there’s a resolution. The government continues to pay Social Security and other retirement or health benefits, but there’s always the possibility that federal workers who process those checks could refuse to come to work if they’re not getting paid and a shutdown drags on.
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The U.S. Capitol building in Washington, D.C. with an American flag flying. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)
Congressional staff are paid, but not until a shutdown is over.
Every House and Senate office operates like an independent entity within Congress. So lawmakers decide who must come to work and who doesn’t. Some lawmakers determine that only a top aide or two are "essential." Others claim they represent 750,000 people in their congressional district. Therefore, all of their staffers are "essential."
But the institution of Congress makes decisions about Capitol Hill operations.
U.S. Capitol Police stay on duty. But restaurants, cafeterias and barber shops close during a shutdown. Custodians are furloughed. That means garbage and trash around the Capitol isn’t collected. Formal tours of the Capitol are suspended. The flag office – which handles requests from constituents to fly flags atop the Capitol on behalf of school groups or veterans – is shuttered.
Who prevails in government shutdowns? It’s hard to gauge the political benefit. It’s widely believed that former President Bill Clinton won his standoff with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., in 1995-1996. Clinton rode easily to reelection in the fall of 1996. Gingrich seemed to bleed support on Capitol Hill after the shutdown. But Gingrich secured significant spending reforms that ultimately resulted in a federal surplus a few years later. And Republicans maintained control of the House and Senate in 1996.
A shutdown during Trump’s second term may be unlike any other shutdown we’ve seen. (Aaron Schwartz/CNP/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
White House Budget Director Russ Vought issued a memo this week, suggesting there may be mass firings if congressional appropriations lapse and those federal employees work on programs that don’t mesh with the Trump administration’s priorities.
Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., who represents tens of thousands of federal workers just outside Washington, D.C., characterized this as "mafia-style blackmail."
"Do you view the OMB memo as a threat to get you guys to back down or a bluff?" yours truly asked House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y.
"We will not be intimidated by Russ Vought, who is completely and totally out of control," replied Jeffries. "Our response to Russ Vought is simple: get lost."
On X, Jeffries called Vought "a malignant political hack."
At this stage, the sides aren’t even trading offers. Just barbs.
That’s why political observers believe that the chances of a shutdown next week are astronomical. Either Democrats really take it on the chin – and accept the GOP bill. Or Republicans cave.
"We're not going to change our position. That's our position," said Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio.
Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., was the lone Democrat who supported the Republican plan last week in the Senate.
Sen. John Fetterman at the Edward M. Kennedy Institute for the United States Senate on June 2, 2025, in Boston. (Scott Eisen/Getty Images)
"If anyone believes that we're on a rocket sled to autocracy, why would we hand a shuttered government over to President Trump or to Vought at OMB?" questioned Fetterman.
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In nature, it’s rare to spot an addax. An amur leopard. A red wolf.
Government shutdowns are rare as well. But you might spot a shutdown in the wild soon. And you may have even witnessed other government shutdowns before. But perhaps not a shutdown like this one.
Chad Pergram currently serves as a senior congressional correspondent for FOX News Channel (FNC). He joined the network in September 2007 and is based out of Washington, D.C.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/reporters-notebook-government-shutdown-chances-astronomical-congress-barrels-toward-deadline