Trump's tariff strategy could pay for his tax bill, but only if they stick, experts warn

The CBO projects Trump's tariffs could reduce the deficit by $2.8 trillion while his tax bill would add $2.4 trillion, but experts from across the political spectrum question whether the tariff revenue is sustainable.

President Donald Trump during a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, April 30, 2025. Trump blamed former President Joe Biden for weak economic data that sent stocks tumbling, arguing that government data showed that increased domestic investment signaled that his tariff plan is working. (Ken Cedeno/UPI/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

However, the tax portion of the bill alone is expected to cost roughly $4 trillion. And when factoring in spending cuts and other revenue and economic drivers, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found in a report earlier this week that, in all, the colossal legislative package would add $2.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.

The CBO, which has come under recent scrutiny from congressional Republicans unhappy with the scoring of the president’s "big, beautiful bill," also found that Trump’s tariffs would reduce the deficit by $2.8 trillion over the same period.

Joe Rosenberg, a senior fellow at the left-leaning Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, told Fox News Digital that the reconciliation package’s potential impact on the debt is more concerning now than in 2017, due to higher debt levels and rising interest rates.

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President Donald Trump addressed a "nasty" question about his tariff negotiations. (Fox News)

Mike Palicz, director of tax policy at the conservative Americans for Tax Reform, scoffed at the CBO’s recent scoring, and lamented the agency as "a bunch of bean counters" that often miss the mark on key pieces of legislation, like the president’s original Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

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He argued that none of the outside noise should matter, telling Fox News Digital that "you cannot go out and explain to a normal person or business that their taxes aren't increasing next year if the Trump tax cuts are allowed to expire."

"That's what the whole point of this exercise is, preventing the expiration of tax cuts, preventing the largest tax increase in American history," he said. "And no conservative, no Republican, should think that you address the deficit by raising taxes." 

Alex Miller is a writer for Fox News Digital covering the U.S. Senate.

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