Were Wisconsin, Florida elections referendum on Trump, Musk? And what they mean for the 2026 midterms

Democrats paint the election results in the off-year showdown in Wisconsin and the specials in Florida as an early verdict on Trump and Republicans

Elon Musk speaks during a town hall on Sunday, March 30, 2025 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)

"The people of Wisconsin squarely rejected the influence of Elon Musk, Donald Trump, and billionaire special interests," Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin claimed.

And the DNC, looking ahead to next year's bigger contests in the 2026 midterm elections, called the showdown in Wisconsin a "bellwether race."

But Republicans came out on top in Tuesday's other marquee contests, holding control of two vacant congressional seats in twin special elections in red state Florida. The double-digit victories by the Republican candidates will give the GOP a little bit of breathing room in the House of Representatives, where the party is holding onto a very fragile majority as it aims to pass Trump's agenda.

"The American people sent a clear message tonight: they want elected officials who will advance President Trump’s America First agenda, and their votes can’t be bought by national Democrats," Republican National Committee chair Mike Whatley argued.

The Democrat candidates in the two special congressional elections vastly outraised their Republican counterparts - a sign that the party's base is angry and energized - which forced GOP-aligned outside groups to pour money and resources into the races during the final stretch. And the Democrat candidates ended up losing by 15 and 14 points in districts that Trump carried by 37 and 30 points in last November's presidential election.

Democrats quickly spotlighted how the party "overperformed" in Florida. And the House Majority PAC, the top super PAC supporting House Democrats, touted that the results showed "that the political headwinds are firmly at our backs heading into 2026."

But Mike Marinella, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, argued that "Democrats just lit over $20,000,000 on fire in a doomed-to-fail effort to make two deep red Florida districts competitive — and got blown out of the water in the most embarrassing way."

Judge Brad Schimel, the conservative-leaning candidate in Wisconsin's Supreme Court election, announces to supporters that he's conceded, at his election night gathering, in Pewaukee, Wisconsin, on April 1, 2025 (Fox News - Paul Steinhauser)

And Wisconsin GOP chair Brian Schimming noted that "coming off a successful November, we knew the April elections would be challenging."

Republicans note that Democrats enjoyed a slew of special election victories in 2023 and 2024 before suffering serious setbacks in last November's elections.

"Special elections are special for a reason, and not always useful canaries in the coal mines for what lies ahead," veteran Republican strategist Colin Reed told Fox News Digital. "While they can be used as a barometer for energy, they are also a reflection of the individual candidates whose names are on the ballots."

And Reed argued that "the bigger challenge for the Democrats looking ahead is the lack of a vision or governing agenda beyond reflexive and blanket opposition to the White House and their continued positioning way outside the mainstream on a slew of common sense issues."

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/split-decisions-wisconsin-florida-what-mean-2026-midterms