Fifteen states and one U.S. territory, American Samoa, are participating in the 2024 Super Tuesday. (PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP via Getty Images)
But regardless of the overall result, the vote count in certain parts of the country tonight will tell us something about Republican voters in 2024.
College education has been a useful indicator of Haley support so far this year.
In New Hampshire, 56% of GOP primary voters who graduated from college cast a ballot for Haley, according to the Fox News Voter Analysis. She ran about even with Trump on college-educated voters in South Carolina.
That makes these counties, which have the highest share of residents with a college degree, worth watching:
Four of these five counties are in D.C. suburban areas; the other is best known as the home of the luxury ski resort, Aspen.
Haley will look to run up the score as much as possible in places like these.
Counties that have the lowest college degree populations are more likely to vote for former President Donald Trump. (Julie Bennett/Getty Images)
Haley got her first win of the primary season in Washington, D.C. on Sunday night.
Today, voters in neighboring Virginia will also have their say, giving Haley an opportunity to pick up more delegates.
The closer to D.C., the better chance Haley has to run up the vote.
In particular, look to:
The references to Rubio in brackets show how many points the Florida Senator won each county by in 2016; Haley generally appeals to the same kinds of voters now as he did then.
Further down the state, Haley also has opportunities in Henrico County, Chesterfield County, Albemarle County, and James City.
She will need to do as much as she can in those areas, since the rest of the state contains dozens of heavily Trump-skewing, rural counties.
Utah was one of Trump’s weakest states in the 2016 primaries.
His chief rival in that election, Sen. Ted Cruz, dominated statewide, with 69% of the vote and all 40 delegates on offer then.
Trump came third, after former Ohio Governor John Kasich, with 14% of the vote and no county wins.
Trump went on to win the state in the general election, but his margin shrunk by 27 points compared to Mitt Romney’s performance in the state four years prior (thanks in part to a challenge from independent candidate Evan McMullin).
He added 13 points back to his margin in the 2020 general election.
Now, in 2024, Trump is the favorite to win this primary. Watch the statewide margin to see how much the former president has been able to reshape the party.
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More than 2,000 counties are voting in primaries on 2024 Super Tuesday. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Over 2,000 counties are voting today, and 84% of them are in rural areas.
Collectively, they add up to a powerful voting bloc.
Trump has dominated with these voters since 2016, and is expected to do so again tonight.
Watch for the results in the lowest populated parts of west Texas, Alabama, and Oklahoma, especially.
Of all the Super Tuesday states, these parts of the country have skewed the most Republican in recent general elections.
Rémy Numa is the lead political affairs specialist for Fox News Channel. You can follow him on Twitter: @remynuma.
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