Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., recently announced he would be stepping down as minority leader. (J. Scott Applewhite)
Anyone who aspires to a senior Congressional leadership position certainly craves power to some degree.
But political power is mutable. Protean. It fluctuates. And those who have power today are certainly not guaranteed to wield it tomorrow.
Especially on Capitol Hill.
It’s not known where McConnell stands on the congressional scale measuring the quest for power in Washington. McConnell procured power as the longest-serving Senate leader of either party, besting stalwarts like late Senate Majority Leaders Mike Mansfield, D-Mont., Joseph Robinson, D-Ark., Robert Byrd, D-W.V., and Alben Barkley, D-Ky.
But like the others, McConnell had only power — not superpowers.
And everyone lacks power over maintaining power.
MITCH MCCONNELL STEPPING DOWN AS REPUBLICAN LEADER
"I turned 82 last week. The end of my contributions are closer than I’d prefer," said McConnell. "Father Time remains undefeated."
Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, right, announced his candidacy for minority leader. (J. Scott Applewhite)
McConnell said he arrived on Capitol Hill at the beginning of President Ronald Reagan’s second term. Unfamiliar with the new senator from the Bluegrass State, McConnell said the Gipper called him Mitch "O’Donnell." Now McConnell departs with former President Trump calling him an "Old Crow."
McConnell embraced the avian moniker. Like McConnell, Henry Clay is one of Kentucky’s other great statesmen, formerly a House speaker and senator. And as McConnell likes to tell it, Old Crow was Clay’s favorite bourbon. So McConnell said he was honored that Trump would liken him to Clay.
But a new "MAGA" breed of senator arrived on Capitol Hill in recent years. Sens. Mike Lee, R-Utah, Rand Paul, R-Ky., Ron Johnson, R-Wisc., Rick Scott, R-Fla., JD Vance, R-Ohio and Eric Schmitt, R-Mo. They’re not aligned with McConnell. In fact, a senior Senate Republican leadership source told Fox that some GOP senators are tired of what’s called the "MAGA show" at the weekly party conference lunches each Tuesday.
SEN. JOHN CORNYN DECLARES CANDIDACY FOR MINORITY LEADER AFTER MCCONNELL STEPS DOWN
And therein lies the problem for McConnell as his power eroded.
Like all things on Capitol Hill, it’s about the math.
There was no better metric in recent years to measure McConnell’s dwindling power than the exercise over the international aid package, which then became the international aid package with a border security plan. And then reverted back to an international aid bill.
WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 28: U.S. Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) speaks after a Republican policy luncheon at the U.S. Capitol on March 28, 2023 in Washington, DC. (Kevin Dietsch)
But we don’t understand much else.
We must first know who wins the presidential election. And if 2024 is anything like 2020, that might take a while. A delay in figuring out the winner could postpone the internal secret leadership election which Senate Republicans will take in mid to late November. But the winner of the presidential election will define who the GOP wants – especially if former President Trump prevails and has something to say about it.
Another factor: which party has control of the Senate — and by how many seats. Keep in mind we didn’t know which party would control the Senate after the 2020 election until January of 2021.
This is why other figures may emerge. Especially dark horses.
As I have written before, leadership elections in Congress are not "partisan politics" They are "particle politics." Factors which determine who is propelled into leadership are decided at the subatomic political level. Thus, it is hard to see who might prevail. Consider how former House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, won in an upset to become House Majority Leader in 2006. Or how former House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wisc., got his job — despite saying he wasn’t interested. And who could have predicted what was in store for House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., say back in September?
A dark horse could emerge.
Imagine Republicans prevail with a substantial majority in November. In that case, Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., may be a possibility. Daines leads the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the GOP’s campaign arm. Daines has made many of the right moves so far in pending political contests. If Republicans win the Senate by a good margin, some members (especially the new ones), might give Daines a look.
en. Steve Daines, R-Mont., testifies during the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing titled Passenger and Freight Rail: The Current Status of the Rail Network and the Track Ahead, in Russell Building on Wednesday, October 21, 2020. (Tom Williams)
It will be someone’s time this fall. We just don’t know who.
It has been McConnell’s time for more than 17 years on Capitol Hill.
And now it’s not.
Father Time is undefeated.
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And power is elusive. Always deteriorating.
Political leaders are powerful. But powerless over their power.
Chad Pergram currently serves as a senior congressional correspondent for FOX News Channel (FNC). He joined the network in September 2007 and is based out of Washington, D.C.
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