Trump tops Biden by one point in the latest Fox News survey; a result well within the margin of error.
Most high-quality polling since the last forecast is showing the same result: a one or two point lead, either for Biden or Trump, within each poll’s margin of error.
TRUMP, BIDEN FACE TESTS IN FINAL 2024 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
It is too early to tell whether Trump’s conviction in a criminal trial over falsified business records will impact this race, though polling conducted by Marist in the week before the verdict suggests that it will not.
Trump is leading in the battleground states, and especially the closest Sun Belt states (Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada), with mid to high single-digit margins.
The race is closer in the Rust Belt states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), where Trump’s leads are usually within one or two points.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr is still a wild card in this race. He received support from 17% of registered voters in a Marquette survey two weeks ago.
He pulls roughly the same amount of support from both sides in most polls, though Republican voters tend to view him more favorably.
Trump’s consistent leads are good news for the former president’s campaign.
He is making significant inroads with traditionally Democratic groups; particularly young, Hispanic, and Black voters.
As the new Fox News Power Rankings Issues Tracker reveals today, voters say Trump is the right man to handle the economy and the border, two out of the three leading issues in this election. Voters also say Trump is more mentally and physically fit to take on the job.
Biden has strong support from college educated voters, who are a very reliable voting group, and he leads on abortion.
That issue not only rates as a top deal-breaker issue in the latest Fox survey, but is highly likely to feature separately on the ballot in Arizona, which this forecast views as a toss-up state.
Biden can win another four years if he keeps the Rust Belt states and there are no other surprises.
What would a surprise look like?
The most likely candidate is Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
Omaha and its suburbs make up a significant part of the district’s population, and that city has a disproportionately high percentage of people with a college education, making the district the most favorable territory for Biden in a very Republican state.
Both parties are keeping an eye on this part of the state and this forecast expects them to invest heavily in it as November draws closer.
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Nebraska moves from Likely D to Lean D in this forecast.
Rémy Numa is the lead political affairs specialist for Fox News Channel. You can follow him on Twitter: @remynuma.
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