Former President Trump sits in the courtroom during his hush money trial at Manhattan Criminal Court on May 21, 2024 in New York City. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
Veteran pollster Chris Anderson, a member of the Fox News Election Decision Team and the Democratic partner on the Fox News Poll, said that he did not think "a guilty verdict would fundamentally change the landscape of the race."
Daron Shaw, a politics professor and chair at the University of Texas who also serves as a member of the Fox News Decision Team and the Republican partner on the Fox News Poll, noted that "prior to 2020, no one would have thought that a candidate could survive a criminal conviction."
"But times and circumstances have evolved. And while the specific findings of the jury could matter, I think there is a sense that a conviction in this case would not appreciably change the dynamics of the race," Shaw emphasized.
Both pointed to the fact that "attitudes are so set in concrete" regarding both the former Republican president and his Democratic successor in the White House.
Trump is charged with falsifying business records in relation to payments during the 2016 election that he made to Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about his alleged affair with the adult film actress. Trump’s former attorney, Michael Cohen, paid Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, $130,000 in return for her silence about allegations of an affair with Trump in 2006. Prosecutors have argued that this amounted to illegally seeking to influence the 2016 election.
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Both Cohen and Daniels testified for the prosecution and were grilled by Trump's attorneys during cross-examination in a case that has grabbed tons of attention on the cable news networks, online and on social media.
Former President Trump waves while leaving Trump Tower on his way to Manhattan criminal court on Tuesday, May 21, 2024 in New York City. (AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson)
Would a Trump guilty verdict dramatically alter the current state of play in the presidential showdown?
Recent national polling points to a very small - but potentially decisive - drop in support for Trump if he's convicted in court.
Sixty-two percent of registered voters questioned in a Quinnipiac University survey said a guilty verdict would make no difference to their vote for president. Fifteen percent said it would make them more likely to cast a ballot for Trump and 21% said it would make them less likely to vote for the former president.
Additionally, eight out of 10 Trump supporters surveyed in an ABC News/Ipsos poll said they would still back the presumptive GOP presidential nominee if he was found guilty in court. Sixteen percent said they would reconsider their support and 4% said they would no longer back Trump.
Additionally, a Reuters-Ipsos poll indicated a two-point -point shift away from Trump if the former president's convicted, with a bigger six-point shift if Trump is put behind bars.
Anderson compared a potential guilty verdict to the infamous video that briefly damaged Trump's chances of winning the 2016 presidential election.
"We might see an ‘Access Hollywood’ type slump in Trump’s poll numbers, where some of his less devoted supporters sour on him temporarily, but then by November it will seem forgivable," Anderson said. " So I don’t think a guilty verdict would fundamentally change the landscape of the race, but it will certainly be a new contour that could be meaningful in a close race."
President Biden, right, and former President Trump scheduled two debates in June and September as the president trails Trump in key swing states. (Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Shaw, who served as a top strategist on former President George W. Bush's 2000 and 2004 campaigns, said that "the case is esoteric and the prosecution and judge have been painted as partisan hacks by not only the Trump team but by many legal analysts."
"This framing has influenced the opinions of voters, most of whom have already made up their minds about Trump and the charges he faces," Shaw emphasized.
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However, what about an acquittal or a hung jury in the case, which the Trump campaign would likely advertise as a political victory? Unfortunately, there has been scant polling on those legal scenarios.
However, Anderson spotlighted that regardless of the outcome, the history-making trial would have an impact.
"Regardless of the verdict, this trial clearly isn’t what Trump wants to be dealing with right now and has not helped him," Anderson said. "What might help him is a not guilty verdict that will allow him to claim vindication. But even then, it’s a real stretch to imagine it becomes a net positive for him."
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