President Joe Biden speaks during a State of the Union address at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Thursday, March 7, 2024. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
"Biden's position in the polls is improving against Trump," polling analyst Nate Silver said last month.
But Daron Shaw, a politics professor and chair at the University of Texas who serves as a member of the Fox News Decision Team and the Republican partner on the Fox News Poll, is skeptical.
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"If you want to really parse one-to-two-point shifts one way or the other, then I suppose if you squint very hard, you can convince yourself that he [Biden] bumped up one or two, and now he’s lost one of that," Shaw said.
Shaw, who served as a top strategist on former President George W. Bush's 2000 and 2004 campaigns, emphasized that "the race has been fairly steady over much of the past nine months."
Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump boards his plane after speaking at a campaign rally in Freeland, Mich., Wednesday, May 1, 2024. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
With six months to go until Election Day, Shaw wondered whether the current polling dynamic would dramatically shift, baring major developments.
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Pointing to "an era of hyper-polarization where you’ve got two candidates who’ve already run against each other," Shaw noted that many voters already "know everything about both these two guys."
"So why would you expect much movement? What is it about this campaign that’s going to educate voters? Which is usually what’s happened in the past and why the numbers move around," he said.
Anderson agreed, spotlighting "that’s likely to be the story of this election as we go through, that the movement that we’re going to see is likely to be in the margins because so many people are locked in."
Six months out, Anderson said, "it’s not looking good for Biden, but at the same time, you can see how his base comes home, and he pulls his coalition back together and is suddenly a couple of points higher than he is now."
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