Speaker Mike Johnson is facing mounting threats to his leadership role over his push for foreign aid (Getty Images)
I asked Rep. Chip Roy, R-Tex., if Johnson was now weaker, relying on Democratic votes.
"He's already been relying on Democrat votes," replied Roy.
That’s true. Johnson turned to Democrats to avoid multiple government shutdowns and pass the foreign aid package. Most Democrats were especially pleased that Johnson greenlighted a bundle of money for Ukraine.
So is this great for Johnson and stability in the House?
Maybe right now. But there could be a major downside here for Johnson.
The maneuver by Democrats could embolden the smaller coterie of Republicans who want to oust Johnson. And even some rank-and-file Republicans could see that Johnson is only in the job because of the Democrats. This might not undercut Johnson right away. But it could give those who might want his job – potentially House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio – an opportunity to use Democratic support as a wedge and perhaps challenge Johnson for Speaker next year or a leadership post in the new Congress if Republicans lose the majority.
Let history be our guide:
Late House Speaker Joe Cannon, R-Ill. relied on DEMOCRATS to survive a vote of no confidence in the early 20th Century. Cannon retained the Speakership. But largely with help from across the aisle.
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That could be the same situation here.
And perhaps a point in Johnson’s favor is that they eventually named a House office building after Cannon.
So, there’s that.
Prior to Democratic leaders announcing their support for Johnson, it was thought a few Democrats could simply vote to guard Johnson. The other option was that they might "take a walk." If Democrats don’t vote, that assists Johnson, changing the math in the House necessary to remove the Speaker.
It should be noted that another Member besides the Greene could trigger the resolution to "vacate the chair" and force the House to tangle with the possibility of removing the Speaker.
Or, in a particularly audacious move, Johnson himself or an ally could trigger the resolution, confident that their forces will defeat Greene soundly. Such a scenario could embarrass Greene and likely euthanize any effort to remove the Speaker for the rest of the Congress.
So here’s what happens if Greene’s resolution is triggered:
The first vote is likely on a motion to table or kill the resolution. If the House votes to table, the gig is up. The House will have vanquished Greene’s effort. That’s where Democrats say they will help.
(Nathan Howard/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
By rule, the next order of business is for the House to take names in nomination for a new Speaker. The House then votes on Speaker. In the case of last fall, it took several days before the House was even ready to consider a new Speaker. The Speakership sat vacant for 22 days.
Greene is following a very familiar path.
In the summer of 2015, former Trump White House Chief of Staff and former Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., also introduced a resolution remove then-House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio. But much like Greene, Meadows never pulled the trigger, forcing a vote on the floor.
But after an audience with Pope Francis at the Capitol and an address to a Joint Meeting of Congress, Boehner gave it all up. He wouldn’t leave immediately. The Speaker said he would first "clean the barn" of nettlesome issues like funding the government and grappling with the debt ceiling. That would give the new Speaker time to get their political sea legs.
Barring a major domestic or international crisis, Mike Johnson has essentially "cleaned the barn" until fall. The "must do" list for Congress is rather anemic between now and September 30. That’s the next big deadline: fund the government. Again. That’s why Greene - and some who support her position - hope Johnson gets the message.
It’s unclear if that message is loud enough right now. There are lots of unhappy Republicans. But few have the stomach to endure another tempestuous period like last autumn when the House voted out McCarthy.
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If Greene can’t gin up the support to remove Johnson, the next vote for House Speaker likely comes around 1 pm et on January 3, 2025. The 119th Congress – the new Congress – convenes at noon et under the Constitution. After a quorum call to determine who all is there, the first order of business is the election of a House Speaker. Republicans will nominate one candidate. Democrats will nominate another. However, Members – who are technically Representatives-elect at that point – can vote for anyone they want.
And during that election, Democrats won’t protect Johnson. Either they will have the majority and elect Jeffries the next Speaker of the House. Or, if Democrats are in the minority, Democrats will vote for Jeffries and watch the donnybrook on the other side of the aisle.
Chad Pergram currently serves as a senior congressional correspondent for FOX News Channel (FNC). He joined the network in September 2007 and is based out of Washington, D.C.
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