Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country would not negotiate on its ballistic missile program, rejecting a core U.S. demand and further dimming prospects for a breakthrough deal. (Vahid Salemi/AP)
"One country is much stronger, but the weaker country cares more," Kelanic said. "And historically, the country that cares more often wins by outlasting the stronger one."
"Iran is trying to signal resolve as strongly as it can, but it likely doubts U.S. resolve — because from Tehran’s perspective, the stakes for Iran are existential, while the stakes for the United States are not," she added.
Behnam Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Tehran’s primary leverage is its ability to threaten wider regional instability, even if it cannot win a prolonged conflict.
"The Islamic Republic’s leverage is the threat of a region-wide war," Taleblu said, noting that while U.S. and Israeli defenses could intercept most attacks, "something will get hit."
Analysts across the spectrum agree that Iran is using negotiations less as a path to compromise than as a way to delay decisive action.
Oren Kessler, analyst at global consulting firm Wikistrat, said Iran is using talks to stabilize its position internally while avoiding concessions on core security issues.
"Both sides want a deal, but their red lines are very hard for the other side to overcome," Kesler said. "The talks are going well in the sense that they’re happening, but they’re not really going anywhere."
Taleblu echoed that assessment, arguing that Tehran is treating diplomacy as a shield rather than a solution.
"The regime is treating negotiations as a lifeline rather than a way to resolve the core problem," he said.
Taleblu added that Iran’s leadership sees talks as a way to deter a strike in the short term, weaken domestic opposition in the medium term, and eventually secure sanctions relief to stabilize its economy.
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pictured sitting next to senior military official in Iran. (Getty Images)
"We are ready to reach a reassuring agreement on enrichment," he said. "The Iranian nuclear case will only be resolved through negotiations."
Iran’s atomic chief said Monday that Tehran would consider diluting its 60% enriched uranium — a level close to weapons-grade — but only in exchange for the lifting of all sanctions.
As negotiations unfolded, the U.S. continued to expand its military footprint in the Middle East.
In late January, the U.S. dispatched a carrier strike group centered on the USS Abraham Lincoln to the North Arabian Sea, accompanied by multiple destroyers and other naval assets. Additional F-15E strike aircraft and air defense systems have also been repositioned at bases across the region, alongside thousands of U.S. troops.
Taleblu said the administration may be using diplomacy to buy time of its own.
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"The charitable interpretation is that the president is buying time — moving assets, strengthening missile defense, and preparing military options," he said. "The less charitable interpretation is that the United States is taking Iran’s threats as highly credible and still chasing the optics of a deal."
In 2025, five rounds of talks similarly stalled over U.S. demands that Iran abandon enrichment entirely — talks that ultimately collapsed into Operation Midnight Hammer, a U.S.-led bombing campaign against Iranian nuclear facilities.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/iran-draws-missile-red-line-analysts-warn-tehran-stalling-us-talks