Blue-leaning state emerges as top GOP trouble spot as Senate campaign chief sounds midterm alarm

Senate Republicans face polling deficit ahead of midterm elections as GOP defends 53-47 majority. NRSC chair warns of tough battles in key states.

An exterior view of the Senate side of the U.S. Capitol, on Jan. 12, 2026. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)

Scott, in his briefing, pointed to the Democrats' six-point margin over Republicans on the generic ballot — which asks respondents whether they'd back the Democrat or Republican candidate in their congressional district without mentioning specific candidate names — in the latest Fox News national poll. Scott's briefing was first reported by Axios and confirmed by Fox News Digital.

Maine, which Scott pointed to, and battleground North Carolina, where Republicans are defending an open seat in the race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis, are the Democrats' top two targets in the 2026 election cycle.

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"The Democrats are targeting a number of our incumbents. And so we've got some races that are going to be expensive and hard fought in places like Maine and North Carolina," Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., told reporters following the NRSC briefing.

But Thune added, "We feel really good about... where our Senate races are." And he emphasized that "incumbents in our conference are seasoned veterans who will outwork any of their opponents."

President Donald Trump signs the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, during a picnic with military families to mark Independence Day, at the White House on July 4, 2025. (Reuters/Ken Cedeno)

"I think what happened in Texas should capture our attention and remind us that we need to up our game and do a better job," Thune said. "We've got to get out and tell that story. And I think over the course of the next several months, we'll do that."

Scott, in a Fox News Digital interview late last year, touted that "2026 is shaping up to be the year where Donald Trump's activities, his actions, the legislation we've passed, shows up for the American voter. And consumers all across the country will see a more affordable economy because of President Trump and the Senate majority and the House majority in the hands of the Republican Party."

Democrats are happy to have that fight.

"President Trump is creating a toxic agenda that's harming people," Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chair Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand told Fox News Digital last month.

And she added she's "optimistic that we have a shot to take back the majority."

Gillibrand argued that Trump "is creating this massive backlash because of his bad and hurtful and harmful agenda," which she said "adds more to the map."

Besides Maine and North Carolina, Democrats are also trying to flip GOP-held Senate seats in Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Iowa, which are all red states.

But they're playing defense as they defend open seats in battleground Michigan, swing state New Hampshire, and blue-leaning Minnesota. And the NRSC's targeting battleground Georgia, where they consider first-term Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff very vulnerable as he seeks re-election.

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While Scott offered a sobering presentation to his Senate GOP colleagues this week, he told Fox News Digital in December that in the battle for the majority, "54 is clearly within our grasp right now, but with a little bit of luck, 55 is on our side."

Asked about Scott's aspirations to pick up one or two seats, Gillibrand last month responded, "No chance."

Fox News' Kelly Phares and Tyler Olson contributed to this report

Paul Steinhauser is a politics reporter based in the swing state of New Hampshire. He covers the campaign trail from coast to coast."

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