Syrian security forces increased security measures at Al-Hawl refugee camp. (Santiago Montag/Anadolu via Getty Image)
Brian Carter, a Middle East analyst at the Washington, D.C., free-market American Enterprise Institute think tank, cautioned that Iraqi assessments should be viewed in context, noting that Baghdad has long harbored deep concerns about Syria’s new leadership and its Islamist roots — factors that can shape how Iraqi officials assess the threat emanating from across the border.
Trump declared the U.S. had defeated ISIS in 2019 after U.S.-backed forces dismantled the group’s territorial caliphate. Since then, the group has partially reconstituted as an insurgent network, maintaining sleeper cells across the region.
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That persistence was underscored Dec. 13, 2025, when an ISIS-affiliated gunman killed U.S. National Guard Sgts. Edgar Brian Torres-Tovar and William Nathaniel Howard in Palmyra, Syria — the first U.S. combat deaths in Syria since the 2024 transition.
The attack prompted a U.S. military response known as Operation Hawkeye Strike, a series of airstrikes targeting more than 100 ISIS infrastructure sites days later. U.S. officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, described the mission as aimed at "eliminating ISIS fighters," signaling a more aggressive posture as Syria’s landscape fractured.
CHAOS IN SYRIA SPARKS FEARS OF ISIS PRISON BREAKS AS US RUSHES DETAINEES TO IRAQ
For years, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) guarded roughly 10,000 ISIS detainees in Syria. But that system is now breaking down.
Following the Jan. 18, 14-point agreement brokered by U.S. envoy Tom Barrack, the SDF is being integrated "individually" into the Syrian National Army. This has forced a rapid reorganization of security responsibilities.
The collapse of Kurdish autonomy has directly affected detention operations. Syrian government forces have taken over major sites, including Shaddadi Prison and Panorama Prison, both of which saw intense fighting Jan. 19 during Operation Hawkeye Strike. U.S. military officials have framed the subsequent detainee transfers as a critical effort to prevent a broader security failure.
"We are closely coordinating with regional partners, including the Iraqi government," said Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, following the Jan. 21 transfer of the first 150 high-risk fighters to Iraq. "Facilitating the orderly and secure transfer of ISIS detainees is critical to preventing a breakout that would pose a direct threat to the United States."
Analysts say one of the most delicate challenges facing Syria’s new government is that not everyone held in ISIS detention facilities is actually an ISIS fighter. Years of mass arrests, shifting front lines and inconsistent record-keeping have left authorities with incomplete files on who was detained for terrorism and who was swept up for political or security reasons.
LINDSEY GRAHAM SAYS 'STRONG CONSENSUS' TO PROTECT KURDS AS SYRIAN FORCES ADVANCE ON TERRITORY
While up to 7,000 detainees are slated for transfer, the situation remains volatile. Syrian authorities recently completed a takeover of the al-Hol camp, which houses 24,000 people.
Kurdish-led forces said they withdrew from the camp amid "international indifference," leaving Syrian authorities to manage a population analysts warn could complicate release decisions during a fragile transition.
"There’s always a risk when you’re moving large numbers of people in a hurry," said Daniel Byman, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Byman said the danger lies not in ISIS’s current strength, but in the conditions surrounding a security transition.
"These groups are weak, right? So this isn’t 2015," he said. "But chaos is good for ISIS."
Syrian security forces stand guard outside a Syrian prison. (Karam al-Masri/Reuters)
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As responsibility for tracking ISIS fighters becomes increasingly diffuse, analysts say the outcome will depend on whether regional governments can manage detainees and close gaps during this rapid political transition.
"When you’re saying, ‘we don’t care about your region,’ your ability to coordinate your allies declines," Byman warned.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/after-trump-declared-isis-defeated-us-faces-new-test-detainees-move-amid-syria-power-shift