Lawmakers are teetering on the edge of a partial government shutdown with Homeland Security funding at the forefront of a heated debate. (Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The liberal base certainly got that this fall as Democrats withheld their votes to fund the government and fought over expiring Obamacare subsidies. The government shuttered for 43 days. But Democrats never earned a restoration of Obamacare subsidies. The Senate took a vote related to restoring the subsidies. Nothing happened. The House actually passed a bill re-upping the subsidies for three years. But the issue remains at an impasse.
Despite the fall brawl, Democratic congressional leaders faced a narrow path to walk for this funding round. They still felt pressure from the left to oppose money for DHS, long before the killing of Renee Good and Pretti. But Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., did not go to the mat to oppose funding this time. They wanted to finesse this, believing that a shutdown was bad politics for them after the fall experience. After all, Democrats never scored precisely what they wanted. By the same token, Schumer and Jeffries didn’t wade deeply into the funding fight, perhaps afraid of breaking a fragile truce on spending bills.
That all changed Saturday. Democrat after Democrat published statements that they wouldn’t vote to fund DHS. Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, caucuses with the Democrats. He was one senator instrumental to helping re-open the government last fall. King said he couldn’t support funding this time around.
MORE THAN HALF OF HOUSE DEMOCRATS BACK IMPEACHMENT PUSH AGAINST DHS CHIEF KRISTI NOEM
So unless something changes by 11:59:59 p.m. ET on Friday, Jan. 30, 78% of the federal government will lack money to operate. The six-bill, $1.2 trillion spending package doesn’t only fund the Department of Homeland Security, but it also provides money for the Pentagon, Health and Human Services, Labor & Housing programs, Transportation and Education.
The DHS bill was radioactive in the House. So the House broke that bill off from the rest of the package. The House approved the DHS funding measure 220-207 with seven Democratic yeas. The House approved the remaining bills 341-88.
The House then married the six bills together in one package, sent it to the Senate and left town.
There was some grumbling from senators that this was a "take it or leave it" package.
What Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is proposing would, in essence, trigger a shutdown. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
So going after DHS right now would have little impact on the funding for ICE. However, Democrats could demand certain "guardrails" and changes in policy for ICE.
From a parliamentary standpoint, ripping the six-bill package apart is a mess. First of all, the Senate must agree on a "motion to strike" the DHS section from the six-bill combo package. The Senate would have to vote on this. Or, in the interest of time, do this via unanimous consent. But because the "motion to strike" by itself is debatable, the issue could set up a possible filibuster. Sixty votes are needed to cut off debate on just that question alone – stripping the DHS provision from the rest of the overall bill.
It’s important that a motion to strike the DHS money from the rest of the bill does not mean that the remaining five bills are ready to go. The Senate would have to agree that this is the new bill. Senators would then have to overcome a filibuster once and then vote to pass the bill. Those floor mechanics get you well past the early Saturday morning deadline.
Then the Senate must tangle with passing the standalone DHS funding bill by itself. That certainly isn’t going to be done by Saturday morning.
Moreover, none of these scenarios even addresses the House. If the Senate did approve the revamped five-bill spending package and the solitary DHS bill, the measures must return to the House. The House would have to vote on a "motion to concur" on the five-bill minibus. And then separately, on the solo DHS measure. That’s probably untenable in the House. Anything under this plan wouldn’t meet the early Saturday morning deadline. In addition, the House could glue the bills together another way and send it back to the Senate. Or, the House could even move to go to a conference committee and try to blend the bills into one.
There is no easy way out of this at such a late date. And that’s why you likely have a partial government shutdown at 12:00:01 a.m. ET on Saturday.
Despite ICE being funded by One Big Beautiful Bill, disruptions to other services loom ahead. (Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Even though ICE is funded thanks to the One Big Beautiful Bill, there’s a big penalty and disruption and other services. TSA agents are unpaid again. That’s a major problem considering what they went through this fall – and coming on the heels of the monster winter storm which swept across the country in the past few days. Air traffic controllers would again face the lack of a paycheck as part of the transportation spending bill.
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Then, there are the politics. Who gets blamed? Republicans are concerned about losing support from voters based on the tactics of ICE. That’s why some Republicans are searching for some changes – but not ready to nuke the spending bill. Meantime, if the government shuts down thanks to Democrats withholding their votes, that may resonate with progressives. But it may hurt the party if Democrats are viewed as the party responsible for another shutdown.
This is a tough situation all around. And there’s not an obvious off-ramp.
Chad Pergram currently serves as Chief Congressional Correspondent for FOX News Channel (FNC). He joined the network in September 2007 and is based out of Washington, D.C.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hitchhikers-guide-why-may-partial-government-shutdown-saturday