Inside Trump’s Iran warning — and the unexpected pause that followed

Trump promised Iranian protesters "help is on its way" but paused military action, sparking debate over U.S. credibility and intervention strategy in Iran.

Demonstrators burn pictures of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei outside the Iranian embassy during a rally in support of nationwide protests in Iran, in London, Jan. 12, 2026.  (Toby Melville/Reuters)

The pause has nonetheless drawn backlash, as critics argue Trump’s promise that "help is on the way" may have raised expectations or emboldened protesters.

One Iranian citizen who witnessed violence during demonstrations said protesters are "still waiting on United States special forces to act in Iran." 

"They can come to help us. We can finish the job on the ground," the Iranian, who requested anonymity for fear of retribution, said. 

"‘Go forward, help is coming,’ Trump said. The people went forward. They were killed. No help came," one user wrote on X. 

"Iranian patriots have now waited more than 160 hours for Trump’s promise that ‘HELP IS ON ITS WAY,’" wrote another.

Iran state TV said more than 3,117 people have been killed in recent demonstrations. Other human rights groups place the estimate much higher.

Protests have since subsided from their peak earlier in January due to a brutal crackdown, but anti-regime advocates are "waiting at home for that special moment," the Iranian said. 

But the leadership question remains unresolved. 

"The big question then becomes what’s the objective — not just militarily, but what’s the political objective in Iran," said Seth Jones, a senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 

Without a clear endgame, he warned, military pressure can create instability without producing a viable outcome.

Others warned that U.S. intervention could have backfired against the protest movement itself. 

"Anything that associates the U.S. with the protesters hurts the protesters," said Rosemary Kelanic of Defense Priorities, arguing that overt American involvement would make it easier for Tehran to portray demonstrations as foreign-backed and justify a harsher crackdown.

Concerns that the pause damaged U.S. credibility, she added, are overstated. 

"Trump has shown several times quite recently his willingness to use U.S. military force in quite spectacular ways."

Even limited strikes carried trade-offs. 

"If kinetic, the administration must be wary to not dampen protester morale," said Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. 

Civilian casualties or poorly selected targets, he said, could push Iranians "into survival mode" rather than keep them in the streets. Subtler forms of pressure may also fall short. 

"Something too covert, such as in the cyber domain alone, might not be ‘seen’ by protesters," he said.

Protests in Iran intensify for the 12th day. (The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) )

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Inside Iran, authorities have responded with a sweeping crackdown, according to human rights groups and media reports. In addition to killings, security forces have carried out mass arrests, used live ammunition in some areas, and imposed severe internet and connectivity restrictions to prevent protesters from organizing or broadcasting abuses. 

Iranian officials have blamed foreign influence for the unrest, a narrative experts say becomes easier to advance when U.S. leaders publicly hint at involvement.

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