New Heritage report on an AI-powered wargame has dire warning for US-China conflict scenario.
According to the report’s redacted findings, the U.S. would culminate in less than half the time required for the People's Republic of China in a high-intensity conflict. Culmination is defined as the point at which a force becomes incapable of continuing operations due to the loss of platforms, ammunition and/or fuel.
The report is explicit that the first 30 days to 60 days of a U.S.-China war determine its long-term shape and outcome, as early losses in aircraft, ships, fuel throughput and munitions rapidly compound and cannot be recovered on operationally relevant timelines.
The report concludes that the U.S. is not equipped nor arrayed to protect and sustain the Joint Force in a conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific. Rapid platform attrition, brittle logistics, concentrated basing and insufficient industrial surge capacity combine to force an early operational breaking point for American forces.
The report warns that U.S. reliance on a small number of large, concentrated forward bases — particularly in Japan and Guam — leaves American airpower dangerously exposed to Chinese missile forces.
In multiple scenarios, up to 90% of U.S. and allied aircraft positioned at major forward bases are destroyed on the ground during the opening phase of the conflict, as runways, fuel depots, command facilities and parked aircraft are hit simultaneously.
The report finds that critical U.S. precision‑guided munitions — including long‑range anti‑ship missiles, air‑to‑air interceptors and missile‑defense systems — begin to be unavailable within five to seven days of major combat operations. Across most scenarios, those critical munitions are completely exhausted within 35 days to 40 days, leaving U.S. forces unable to sustain high‑tempo combat.
Fuel emerges as the most decisive vulnerability of all. The report makes a critical distinction: the U.S. does not run out of fuel in most scenarios — it loses the ability to move fuel under fire.
Chinese doctrine explicitly prioritizes attacks on logistics vessels, ports, pipelines and replenishment tankers. Even limited tanker losses, port disruptions or pipeline severance are sufficient to drive fuel throughput below survivable levels, forcing commanders to sharply curtail air and naval operations despite fuel remaining in aggregate stockpiles.
The report warns that U.S. reliance on large, concentrated forward bases leaves American airpower dangerously exposed. (Seaman Abigail Reyes/U.S. Navy/Handout via Reuters)
The report comes amid years of concern over US military readiness and industrial capacity, as China rapidly expands its naval forces and shipbuilding base.
The U.S. Navy operates a smaller fleet than planned, while American shipyards face workforce shortages, aging infrastructure and chronic delays — even as China, the world’s largest shipbuilder, continues to outpace the U.S. in producing new naval hulls.
War Secretary Pete Hegseth and other military leaders have vowed to put the Pentagon on a wartime footing for industrial capacity.
Perhaps most alarming, TIDALWAVE warns that the scale of losses in the Indo‑Pacific would leave the U.S. unable to deter or respond effectively to a second major conflict elsewhere in the world.
A war over Taiwan could open the door to follow‑on aggression by adversaries such as Russia, Iran or North Korea, fundamentally destabilizing the global security order.
The report is blunt in its assessment: existing Pentagon programs and congressional funding are too slow, too fragmented and too modest to address the scale of the challenge. In many cases, the timeline required to fix critical vulnerabilities exceeds the likely timeline to conflict.
To avoid what the authors describe as a strategic defeat, the report urges Congress to immediately expand munitions stockpiles, strengthen fuel reserves and distribution infrastructure, harden and disperse forward bases, and accelerate sustainment and logistics reforms. Without rapid action, the authors warn, the U.S. risks entering a conflict it is structurally unprepared to fight or sustain.
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With intelligence warnings mounting that China could move on Taiwan before the end of the decade, TIDALWAVE cautions that the window to correct these deficiencies may be closing faster than Washington is prepared to act.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-admin-sought-redactions-key-china-war-game-report-warning-us-military-readiness-gaps