As 2025 draws to a close, tensions between China and Taiwan are higher — and more overt — than at any point in recent years. (Daniel Ceng/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The exercises followed a familiar pattern seen throughout the year: People’s Liberation Army aircraft and ships operating closer to Taiwan with greater frequency, reinforcing Beijing’s claim of sovereignty while testing Taipei’s response capacity.
Unlike earlier shows of force, the late-year drills were widely interpreted as practice for coercive scenarios short of outright war — particularly a blockade or quarantine designed to strangle Taiwan economically and politically without triggering immediate global conflict.
Chinese officials explicitly tied the escalation to Washington’s actions, pointing to a massive U.S. arms package approved in December — valued at roughly $11 billion and described as one of the largest such sales to Taiwan in years — as proof of what Beijing calls "foreign interference."
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Chinese officials have been unusually blunt in their response.
"Any external forces that attempt to intervene in the Taiwan issue or interfere in China's internal affairs will surely smash their heads bloody against the iron walls of the Chinese People's Liberation Army," China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said in a Monday statement.
The arms package continued the U.S. push to strengthen Taiwan’s asymmetric defenses, including missiles, drones, and systems designed to complicate a Chinese assault rather than match Beijing weapon-for-weapon.
Taipei welcomed the support but remained cautious in its public response, emphasizing restraint while warning that Chinese military pressure has become routine rather than exceptional.
One of the most consequential shifts in 2025 came not from Washington or Taipei, Taiwan, but from Tokyo.
In November, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made unusually direct remarks linking a potential Taiwan contingency to Japan’s own security, suggesting that an attack on Taiwan could trigger collective self-defense considerations under Japanese law.
China's type 055 guided-missile destroyer Nanchang sails during a naval exercise. (Sun Zifa/China News Service via Getty Images)
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Many defense analysts argue that Beijing has strong incentives to continue applying pressure through gray-zone tactics — cyber operations, economic coercion, legal warfare, and military intimidation — rather than crossing the threshold into open war.
The December drills reinforced that view, highlighting blockade-style scenarios that could test Taiwan and its partners without immediately triggering a shooting war.
As 2026 approaches, the Taiwan Strait remains a flashpoint where deterrence and coercion are colliding more frequently and more visibly.
The most widely held assessment among U.S. and regional officials is that while the risk of conflict is rising — particularly as China approaches its 2027 military readiness goals — an invasion is not yet the most likely near-term outcome.
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Instead, the danger lies in sustained pressure, miscalculation, and crisis escalation, especially as more actors — from Japan to the Philippines — become directly implicated in the Taiwan equation.
For now, 2025 ends with no shots fired across the Taiwan Strait — but with fewer illusions about how close the region may be to its most serious test in decades.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/chinas-global-aggression-check-taiwan-tensions-military-posturing-us-response-2025