Rep. Lloyd Doggett speaks as activists protest against mid-decade redistricting at the Texas Capitol in Austin, Aug. 20, 2025. (Mikala Compton/The Austin American-Statesman via Getty Images)
The Supreme Court’s affirmation of the new maps cements new political realities in the Lone Star State designed to squeeze five Democrats out of office, and it puts to bed questions about the lawfulness of the change. Although Doggett’s exit makes a Democratic victory in Texas’ 37th Congressional District more unlikely and has forced other Democrats like Rep. Marc Veasy, D-Texas, into similar retirement decisions, questions remain about whether those advantages are short-term gains or if Republicans can reliably expect to benefit in years to come.
Matthew Green, professor of political science at the Catholic University of America, said the new political landscape — like all gerrymandering efforts — is an advantage that will change over time.
"Gerrymandering can have different effects in differing states over time, but in general, partisan gerrymanders tend to ‘stack the deck’ towards one party or another," Green said. "Texas is potentially unpredictable; Latinos are increasingly swing voters, so it's not clear what the results might be in 2026 and beyond."
Like Green, Doggett also pointed to the Latino vote as a particularly large wildcard that Texas Republicans will likely have to reckon with. He believes Republican redistricting efforts have assumed that the Latino community in Texas will continue its right-leaning trend of the last election. Latinos make up roughly 40% of the population in Texas, according to data from the 2020 census.
"I see incredible engagement by people across ethnic and racial lines. But given the way the Republicans drew these districts, where they said they were basically packing Hispanics in some districts, I think that this could come back to create a problem for them," Doggett said.
In addition to shifting voting patterns among demographics, Doggett pointed out that Trump's messaging on immigration may not play as forcefully among voters as in 2024.
"They are fighting the last war, and we're fighting one now, where many people recognize that Trump's promises on affordability and the like are not working. And so I think the immigration issue is not the kind of hammer that he was able to use last time," Doggett said.
Republican strategists responding to those comments said those vulnerabilities exist everywhere.
"That's an interesting way to think about it," said a strategist familiar with the thinking of Republican candidates in Texas. "The same case could be made in California or any other state that's redistricting, right? Like in general, [the advantages] are temporary, no matter what the map is."
The source said Republicans — and Democrats in other states — are all attempting to push advantages they can find as the margin deciding the balance of power on Capitol Hill has continued to shrink in recent years.
"You know, the days of having a House majority by more than 10, those are in the rearview mirror. The map is always going to be small, no matter what the redistricting situation is. So redistricting might help people right now, but it's always a game of inches. So there's always going to be a small margin no matter which party holds the House," the strategist said.
RED STATE MOVES FORWARD ON TRUMP-BACKED PUSH FOR NEW CONGRESSIONAL MAP
Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Texas, leaves the House Democratic Caucus meeting in the Capitol in Washington, Nov. 17, 2021. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
Doggett’s departure robs Democrats of a storied incumbent with deep ties to the region. Any alternative candidate the party might put up would likely face a harder time against a Republican opponent.
Doggett, who was the first Democrat to call on then-President Joe Biden to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race, last won reelection in 2024 with a 74.2%–23.6% victory over Republican candidate Jenny Garcia Sharon.
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"I am most appreciative for the opportunity to have represented our community in public office for most of the last 50 years — appreciative for the support and encouragement of so many neighbors as well as people from McAllen to San Antonio, from San Marcos to La Grange," Doggett wrote in a press release announcing his retirement.
Leo Briceno is a politics reporter for the congressional team at Fox News Digital. He was previously a reporter with World Magazine.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/doggett-bows-out-after-scotus-upholds-gop-drawn-map-warns-gops-redistricting-could-backfire