House of Representative-elect Republican Matt Van Epps delivers his victory speech at Millennium Hotel Maxwell House Nashville on December 2, 2025, in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Brett Carlsen/Getty Images)
Maybe. Maybe not. Special elections are special. A snapshot of where a given district stands at a point in time — often without the benefits of the regular electorate which shows up in November every two years. That’s why House special elections are sometimes closer than what can be expected in the general. And the party out of power often dumps truckloads of cash into these contests to win. If nothing else, it forces the other party to burn lots of money too. But, trying to make a race seem important gins up the base and concocts an illusion that things aren’t going well for the other side. Maybe people believe that voters are fed up and are demanding a change.
A special election is kind of like checking the score of a football game partway through the second quarter. Maybe one team’s passing game is really clicking. That may dictate the outcome. But we haven’t yet seen the two fumbles in the second half. That’s to say nothing of the botched snap on the field goal and blocked punt.
A lot can happen.
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Frankly, flipping seats in House special elections is arduous. The party out of power in the House or opposite of who occupies the White House, often makes a race of it. That can signal a weakness in the party in power or even the President as you approach the next election. One of the best examples of this came in 2017. House Democrats came close to flipping four special elections in solid Republican seats ranging from Montana to Kansas to South Carolina to Georgia.
But Democrats didn’t capture any of those seats.
However, Democrats did make a few of them closer than you might think.
In fact, one of the best examples involved Rep. Ron Estes (R-Kan.).
President Donald Trump tapped former Rep. Mike Pompeo (R-Kan.) to serve as CIA Director and later, Secretary of State. Estes ran to succeed Pompeo. Pompeo won his district with 61% of the vote in 2016. Estes held off a challenge from Democrat James Thompson, vanquishing his opponent by six points and scoring 52% of the vote. Despite the defeat, Democrats and political observers noted the relative strength of Thompson in the special election. Many wondered if this was an omen about a 2018 Democratic wave.
Republican nominee Matt Van Epps delivers a victory speech after winning a special congressional election in Tennessee's 7th District, on Dec. 2, 2025 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
Then there is redistricting and gerrymandering. The Van Epps win underscores the concept that drawing favorable lines for your party works. But this redistricting took place several years ago. Tennessee Republicans drew former Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.), a Blue Dog, and any other Democrat out of a Nashville-area district. The GOP trifurcated Nashville and the suburbs, diluting the Democratic vote among several GOP districts. That served as a safety valve to assure a GOP win Tuesday. It also explains the risks of the current wave of redistricting by both parties. Plus, it underscores how redrawing the lines can make some contests closer than they should be.
Both sides are now dancing around with interpretations of what unfolded Tuesday. Republicans say this is why they will hold the House next year. Democrats say they won – even though they lost. And that’s why they will capture the House in the midterms.
Call it the Tennessee "waltz."
But special elections loom in Texas, New Jersey and Georgia.
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It’s doubtful that those seats are in play.
So don’t expect the Texas Two-Step, the Garden State Stomp or The Night The Lights Went Out In Georgia.
Chad Pergram currently serves as Chief Congressional Correspondent for FOX News Channel (FNC). He joined the network in September 2007 and is based out of Washington, D.C.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tennessee-waltz-republicans-democrats-dance-around-special-election-results-meaning