Chair of the Subcommittee on Delivering On Government Efficiency (DOGE) Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene presides over a hearing of the House Oversight Subcommittee in the U.S. Capitol in Washington, Feb. 26, 2025. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
But the math in the coming weeks and months quickly gets dicey for the GOP.
Greene does not step aside until Jan. 5. So let’s run through the numbers and permutations which could evolve over the next few months.
There’s a special election in Tennessee to succeed former House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mark Green on Dec. 2. President Donald Trump carried the district by 22 points last fall. Green bested his opponent – former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry, a Democrat, by 21 points. So Republicans are expected to hold this seat.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., center, joined by, from left, Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., talks with reporters. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo)
Even though Democrats failed to flip any of those seats, they made the GOP sweat and put up strong showings. Some analysts viewed the Democrats’ performances in those contests as a sign of things to come in the 2018 midterms and President Trump’s weakness.
Democrats then reclaimed control of the House in the 2018 midterms and won 40 seats.
Republican Matt Van Epps faces Democrat Aftyn Behn next week in the special election to succeed Green in Tennessee. Democrats are pouring money into that contest hoping they can flip the seat.
If they do, the GOP majority dwindles to 219-214. But if Van Epps prevails, the GOP gets some space with a 220-213 majority.
But that only lasts until Greene steps down in January. So the majority would dwindle to 219-213.
Remember that you cannot appoint someone to the House. So you have to wait for special elections. The Georgia special election to succeed Greene wouldn’t happen until March.
But there’s lots to happen before then.
There is a special election runoff to replace Democrat Sylvester Turner on Jan. 31. Democrats will hold that seat with two of their own in the runoff. But government funding expires on Jan. 30. One wonders if House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., might hold off swearing-in a prospective Democratic successor to Turner if the House is out for similar reasons as to why the Speaker refrained from swearing-in Adelita Grijalva.
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Sunrise light hits the U.S. Capitol dome on Jan. 2, 2025, as the 119th Congress is set to begin Friday. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
But what happens if Democrats were to flip the open seats in Tennessee and Georgia and win the special elections in Texas and New Jersey? In that scenario, you’re looking at a 218-217 Republican majority next spring.
Again, we’re positing that no one dies or retires mid-term.
The House is not a very pleasant place to be right now. That’s why some lawmakers may look for the exits early.
And, there’s an old saying that "death will come. And it’s always out of season."
Sylvester Turner was a freshman Democrat and had been a Member of the House for barely two months. He attended President Trump’s State of the Union speech in early March. Turner died overnight.
Grijalva had suffered from cancer for years. He died eight days after Turner. By spring, late Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va., died from cancer – just months after becoming the top Democrat on the Oversight Committee.
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The late Rep. Donald Payne Jr., D-N.J., died last year after bouts with various health issues. Rep. LaMonica McIver, D-N.J., succeeded him in the fall.
The Senate majority has flipped a couple of times in the middle of Congress. The House majority has never switched in the middle of Congress. That may not be the case now. But the tenuous hold on power for the GOP has been the story of the House since the 2022 midterms. It’s one of the tightest majorities in history. And it wouldn’t take much to shift power.
Chad Pergram currently serves as Chief Congressional Correspondent for FOX News Channel (FNC). He joined the network in September 2007 and is based out of Washington, D.C.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/reporters-notebook-house-math-turns-tricky-greene-resignation-tightens-gop-grip-power