An aerial view of a Chinese coast guard ship navigating near the disputed Scarborough Shoal, as Philippine coast guard aircraft carrying journalists patrols the area, days after two Chinese vessels collided in the area while allegedly trying to block a Philippine supply mission in the South China Sea. (Adrian Portugal/Reuters)
The findings stem from a tabletop exercise conducted this summer by FDD and Taiwan’s Centre for Innovative Democracy and Sustainability at National Chengchi University. The simulation, called "Energy Siege," tested how the Chinese Communist Party might escalate from bureaucratic interference to a full-blown energy quarantine.
Teams representing China, Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other allies wargamed a monthslong campaign in which Beijing throttled Taiwan’s fuel imports through "gray-zone" tactics — administrative slowdowns, cyberattacks and disinformation — all while maintaining plausible deniability. The exercise found that a prolonged squeeze on Taiwan’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) could cripple its electrical grid within weeks and trigger a global chip shock.
The report warns that cyber operations and propaganda would be central to Beijing’s playbook. Chinese hackers have already doubled successful intrusions into Taiwan’s energy grid over the past year, and the exercise envisioned them embedding malware in LNG terminals and power-plant control systems to disrupt shipments and distribution.
At the same time, Beijing would unleash a barrage of false narratives — rumors of blackouts, fuel hoarding and government incompetence — to erode public trust and fracture morale. "For Beijing, disinformation is not a sideshow but its primary weapon," the report notes, describing a campaign designed to "control the narrative and sap its adversaries’ will."
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A Chinese blockade of Taiwan could shatter global semiconductor shipping. (Ann Wang/Reuters )
The authors argue that Taiwan should build up its LNG reserves through greater U.S. supply and for the U.S. Navy to be ready to escort vessels delivering it. "Beijing believes pressure plus patience equals political collapse," Montgomery said. "What unnerves China isn’t Taiwan’s defiance, but its people’s ability to withstand coercion."
Beijing’s information strategy, the report adds, would aim to quietly turn Taiwan’s population against its own government and allies — amplifying stories questioning President Lai Ching-te’s competence, spreading rumors of military fuel hoarding and blackouts, and circulating claims that the U.S., Japan and Australia would hesitate to intervene.
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China’s propaganda campaign could also reach the American public, the authors warn, through efforts to "seed questions across U.S. online ecosystems designed to wear down the American public’s commitment to continued convoy operations."
For now, the contest remains theoretical. But as China builds the tools to choke Taiwan’s energy supply and shape its narrative abroad, the line between peace and pressure is narrowing. The exercise suggests the first shot in the next Taiwan crisis may not be fired at all.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/chinas-energy-siege-taiwan-could-cripple-us-supply-chains-report-warns