U.S. Chief of Staff of the Air Force David W. Allvin, President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth unveil the F-47 sixth-generation fighter jet in the Oval Office at the White House. (REUTERS/Carlos Barria)
"I’m not sure that’s really true. In terms of high-end military drones that are really important to this fight, the U.S. still has a pretty significant edge." said Eric Heginbotham, a research scientist at MIT’s Center for International Studies.
He pointed to the Air Force’s stealth reconnaissance platforms — the RQ-170 and RQ-180 — and upcoming "loyal wingman" drones designed to fly with fighters as proof that the U.S. still leads in advanced integration and stealth technology.
HIGH STAKES ON THE HIGH SEAS AS US, CHINA TEST LIMITS OF MILITARY POWER
China’s airpower modernization has accelerated as the U.S. reshapes its force. Beijing has zeroed in on three priorities — stealth, engines, and carriers — the areas that long held its military back.
The Chengdu J-20, China’s flagship stealth fighter, is being fitted with the new WS-15 engine, a home-built powerplant meant to rival U.S. engines.
"It took them a while to get out of the blocks on fifth generation, especially to get performance anywhere near where U.S. fifth gen was," Heginbotham said. "The J-20 really does not have a lot of the performance features that even the F-22 does, and we’ve had the F-22 for a long time."
Meanwhile, China’s third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, was commissioned this fall — the first with electromagnetic catapults similar to U.S. Ford-class carriers. The move signals Beijing’s ambition to launch stealth jets from sea and project power well beyond its coast.
Together, the J-20, the carrier-based J-35, and the Fujian give China a layered airpower network — stealth jets on land and at sea backed by growing missile coverage.
Chinese military writings identify airfields as critical vulnerabilities. PLA campaign manuals call for striking runways early in a conflict to paralyze enemy air operations before they can begin. Analysts believe a few days of concentrated missile fire could cripple U.S. bases across Japan, Okinawa, and Guam.
"The U.S. bases that are forward deployed—particularly on Okinawa, but also on the Japanese mainland and on Guam—are exposed to Chinese missile attack," said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "In our war games, the Chinese would periodically sweep these air bases with missiles and destroy dozens, in some cases even hundreds, of U.S. aircraft."
Heginbotham said that missile-heavy strategy grew directly out of China’s early airpower weakness.
he Chengdu J-20, China’s flagship stealth fighter, is being fitted with the new WS-15 engine, a home-built powerplant meant to rival U.S. engines. (China Daily via Reuters )
"At the initial stages of a conflict, China would have a distinct advantage," Cancian said. "Now, over time, the U.S. would be able to reinforce its forces, and that would change."
The Pentagon’s fiscal 2026–27 budget will determine how fast the U.S. can build out its F-47s, B-21s, and CCAs — systems that will shape American airpower through the 2030s.
China’s rapid modernization is closing what was once a wide gap, but the U.S. still holds advantages in stealth integration, combat experience, and autonomous systems.
"The ability to protect our aircraft, whatever form those aircraft take, on the ground is going to be central to our ability to fight in the Asia theater," Heginbotham said.
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"Survivability is going to be key … The ability to protect and disperse your firepower is going to be central to whether we can really stay in this game."
For decades, U.S. air dominance was taken for granted. In the Pacific, that advantage is no longer guaranteed.
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