The Statue of Freedom atop the U.S. Capitol is seen on day 23 of the government shutdown, Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib)
But all this week represents is another opportunity. There have been multiple inflection points along the way, but nothing has quite yielded the same opportunity to end the shutdown as this week.
Yes, emergency food aid for the nation’s neediest expired on Saturday. Air traffic is growing worse by the hour. Healthcare premiums formally spiked on Saturday – which is why Democrats balked at funding the government in the first place.
But none of those developments have truly forced the sides back to the negotiating table. That’s why some have settled on Tuesday’s elections as a potential turning point.
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Mamdani is the odds-on favorite to become the next mayor of New York City. Republicans are now projecting that the election is why the Democrats haven’t folded on government funding. They believe that certain election results – a win by the progressive Mamdani in New York coupled with what Republicans hope are losses by the moderate former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., running for Virginia governor and Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J., running for New Jersey governor – will prod Democrats into action. Republicans believe such results will compel Democrats to see their party as out of touch.
"I hope the election tomorrow is a change. A sea change in all this," said House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. "I hope that after everybody votes and they go in their room and they make the calculation that, well, ‘maybe, maybe we won't have to hold that line anymore.’"
Republicans know the shutdown will end eventually. But if it ends soon, they want to shape the narrative that "Democrats caved because of the election results."
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., noted that "we're getting to where the consequences of this are very real." (Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images)
Republicans then pinned their hopes on the next missed paycheck, coupled with flight delays, expiring SNAP benefits, and spiking health premiums on November 1.
"The Democrats will collapse entirely," predicted Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, on Fox over the weekend.
But nothing changed.
"We will not support a partisan, Republican spending bill that continues to gut the healthcare of the American people," proclaimed House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. "That's been our position. Week after week after week – and it will continue to be our position."
Say what you will about the Democrats’ strategy. But they haven’t folded.
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Keep in mind that Republicans have tried in vain to convince Senate Democrats since mid-September to accept a GOP spending plan which would only fund the government through November 21.
"It is now becoming close to a moot issue," said Cornyn. "What are they going to do after, I don't know."
Thune proclaimed that the 21st is now a date which is "lost."
Yours truly asked House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., what was the "drop-dead date" for Republicans to make another play call.
"With November 21st out there, it's not a lot [of] time to resolve differences," replied Scalise.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., was asked about the "drop-dead date" for another play call by his party. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
There’s now chatter about Republicans crafting another short-term spending bill through January.
"The longer sort of runway, the better," said Thune. "I'm certainly listening to our colleagues and trying to figure out kind of where that landing spot would be."
But there’s no guarantee either chamber could pass such a measure — especially if Democrats’ core demands remain unaddressed.
In his daily prayer to open the Senate session, Senate Chaplain Barry Black implied that the lawmakers needed help solving the crisis – simply because they were no closer to a resolution than they were in late September.
"Inspire our lawmakers to unite in putting out the fire of this government shutdown that has already burned far more than anticipated," prayed Black.
It’s too unpredictable to make a sound prediction about when the shutdown will end. But if you predict enough things, you’ll eventually get something right.
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So how about this prediction:
The shutdown will end.
Eventually.
And that’s truly the only safe prediction anyone can make right now.
Chad Pergram currently serves as a senior congressional correspondent for FOX News Channel (FNC). He joined the network in September 2007 and is based out of Washington, D.C.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/over-one-month-government-shutdown-no-end-sight-predictions-run-rampant