Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, a Republican, left, is running against Democrat Abigail Spanberger, right, in the state's governor's race in 2025. (Kristen Zeis/The Washington Post via Getty Images; Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
"Let’s say it’s normally a 5-point win, and it turns out to be a 15-point win," Wichterman said, speaking to the possibility of a Democrat winning in both races. "Yeah, that will get people’s attention. But if it’s like a normal 5-point win, whatever the norm is, I don’t think Republicans will look at that as alarming."
Both Democratic candidates, Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey, lead their Republican challengers with just a week to go until Election Day. Republicans Winsome Earle-Sears, the Virginia candidate, and Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey both trail by under 10 points.
CIATTARELLI HITS SHERRILL FOR VOTING TO AVERT SHUTDOWNS UNDER BIDEN BUT NOT TRUMP
In the aftermath of a presidential election, Wichterman said a good performance by the minority party isn't particularly surprising; that would fit the historical trend for how the public reacts to a new president of either party.
"A Democratic win in those two states? Does that freak out Republicans? No, they’re both blue states," Wichterman said.
But if Republican gubernatorial candidates can pull upsets, Wichterman believes that changes things.
"I think Democrats would look at that and say, ‘My gosh, we’re not doing well. What’s going on here?' That would be disruptive."
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One while traveling from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to Tokyo, Japan, Oct. 27, 2025. (Mark Schiefelbein/AP)
"I think Democrats have been waiting for Trump to crack [on the shutdown]," Wichterman said. "And he’s not. I’ve been in lots of shutdown fights starting back in ‘95. I know what it feels like when you’re part of a party that’s taking on water. Doesn’t feel that way on the Republican side yet."
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Democrats expressed similar thoughts as they shot down a supplemental funding bill to pay essential government workers. To them, the gridlock on Capitol Hill likely will remain until something provokes Trump to get personally involved in negotiations.
Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., believes the president's is the only Republican voice that matters.
"He says, ‘Jump,’ they say, ‘How high?’ And so, he’s the one that needs to come to the table," Van Hollen said when asked about shutdown-ending negotiations.
Leo Briceno is a politics reporter for the congressional team at Fox News Digital. He was previously a reporter with World Magazine.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/virginia-new-jersey-governor-races-could-shift-government-shutdown-calculus