Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican nominee for governor in New Jersey, speaks to supporters at a diner in Saddle Brook, N.J. on Oct. 15, 2025. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
The Fox News poll conducted Oct. 10 – 14, put Sherrill at 50% support among likely voters, with Ciattarelli at 45%. Sherrill's 5-point advantage was down from an 8-point lead in Fox News' September survey in New Jersey.
New Jersey and Virginia are the only two states to hold gubernatorial showdowns in the year after a presidential election, and the contests traditionally grab outsized attention and are viewed as political barometers ahead of the following year's midterm elections.
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And this year, they're being viewed, in part, as ballot-box referendums on President Donald Trump's unprecedented and combustible second-term agenda.
While Democrats have long dominated federal and state legislative elections in blue-leaning New Jersey, Republicans are very competitive in gubernatorial contests, winning five out of the past 10 elections.
Republican gubernatorial candidate in Ohio Vivek Ramaswamy headlines a campaign event for New Jersey GOP nominee for governor Jack Ciattarelli, on Oct. 15, 2025, in Saddle Brook, N.J. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
And last week, Ciattarelli was joined at a jam-packed diner stop in Saddle Brook, New Jersey, by Vivek Ramaswamy, the MAGA rockstar who is running for governor next year in his home state of Ohio.
Ramaswamy, the multimillionaire biotech entrepreneur and conservative commentator who pushed an "America First 2.0" platform as he ran for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination before ending his bid and becoming one of Trump's top supporters and surrogates, told Fox News Digital that a Ciattarelli win this year would "set the table for even bigger and more decisive victories, hopefully in places like Ohio next year."
Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin, commenting on why Republicans feel bullish about the New Jersey showdown, raised concerns.
"New Jersey is the best place, probably, for Donald Trump to actually stop the Democratic momentum — or at least minimize the Democratic momentum that we’ve seen throughout this year," Martin said in a Politico interview.
But the Democratic Governors Association (DGA) forecasts a Sherrill victory in two weeks.
"As numerous polls show her holding a strong lead and earning more than 50% of the vote, Mikie Sherrill is rising to meet the moment in this incredibly competitive race," DGA Spokesperson Izzi Levy told Fox News. "It’s clear that Mikie has the momentum, and that New Jersey voters are all-in to reject Ciattarelli for a third time this November."
Sherrill had plenty of company on the campaign trail this weekend from major Democratic Party surrogates, including two of the biggest names in the party — Govs. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Wes Moore of Maryland.
New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rep. Mikie Sherrill, right, and Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli, on the stage moments at the start of their second and final debate, on Oct. 8, 2025, in New Brunswick, N.J. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News Digital)
Asked whether he considered himself part of the MAGA movement, Ciattarelli said he was "part of a New Jersey movement."
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When asked to grade the president's performance so far during his second term, Ciattarelli said, "I'd certainly give the president an A. I think he's right about everything that he's doing."
"I think that tells us all we need to know about who Jack Ciattarelli's supporting. I give him an F right now," Sherrill responded, as she pointed to New Jersey's high cost of living.
Rep. Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee in New Jersey, takes questions from reporters following a debate on Oct. 8, 2025, in New Brunswick, N.J. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
The race in New Jersey was rocked a couple of weeks ago by a report that the National Personnel Records Center, which is a branch of the National Archives and Records Administration, mistakenly released Sherrill's improperly redacted military personnel files, which included private information like her Social Security number, to a Ciattarelli ally.
But Sherrill's military records indicated that the United States Naval Academy blocked her from taking part in her 1994 graduation amid a cheating scandal.
The showdown was jolted again two weeks ago after Sherrill's allegations that Ciattarelli was "complicit" with pharmaceutical companies in the opioid deaths of tens of thousands of New Jerseyans, as she pointed to the medical publishing company he owned that pushed content promoting the use of opioids as a low-risk treatment for chronic pain.
Last week, Trump set off a political hand grenade in the race, as he "terminated" billions of federal dollars for the Gateway Project, which is funding a new train tunnel under the Hudson River connecting New Jersey and New York.
Sherrill, holding a news conference Thursday at a major commuter rail station just a few miles from the site of the tunnels in one of the busiest train corridors in the nation, called the project "critical" as she took aim at Trump and Ciattarelli.
"I'm fighting for the people of New Jersey. He's fighting to excuse Trump. It's unacceptable," Sherrill charged.
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New Jersey traditionally elects a governor from the party out of power in the White House, which this year favors the Democrats.
But Garden State voters haven't elected a governor from the same party in three straight elections in over a half century, which would favor the Republicans.
One of those political trends will be busted in next month's election.
Paul Steinhauser is a politics reporter based in the swing state of New Hampshire. He covers the campaign trail from coast to coast."
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/battle-governor-closely-watched-election-may-headed-photo-finish